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Registered Member #3781
Joined: Sat Mar 26 2011, 02:25AM
Location:
Posts: 701
Um here's my writeup so far:
I'm basically using the Kardashev scale to predict what year we will be able to maximize our consumption of Earth's energy, and thus start harvesting the sun's energy. Unfortunately, there are only 20 known data points and I'm trying to predict the slope of several hundred points, so I made 3 graphs with the three *best* trendlines. My graphs also omit the first two data points (1980, 1981) because they are outliers.
The graphs are K vs Time where x = 0 is 1981 and x = 1 is 1982 (the x axis is arbitrary since the x-intercept is unknown). 1: Exponential trendline 2: Linear trendline 3: Polynomial trendline with order 2
According to the R^2, the polynomial is the best fit, but I'm thinking the most accurate trendline will be some sort of combination between all three trendlines, maybe an average? (Although my gut tells me the exponential trendline is the most accurate of the three) I graphed all three on the x-y plane in using WolframAlpha and got: (WolframAlpha raw data: )
Where y=1 is the kardashev value of 1 which equates to the maximum Earth energy consumption of 10^16 watts. I doubt any of the graphs are accurate past y = 0.9 because at that point I suspect the graph will turn into a polynomial of order 3 for a short period of time while Earth's civilization goes through a new 'Industrial Revolution' of sorts. From Y = 0.9 to Y = 1.1 I suspect the civilization will start building a Dyson sphere or something similar so they can start harvesting the energy of entire stars in space (beginning with our sun?).
Please discuss, and let me know if you have any suggestions or anything.
EDIT: I am planning on comparing the world population graph to my graphs at some point soon. Maybe I could use the result to make an accurate estimate of when the Earth was a Type 0 civilization? I am also curious to see how the Industrial Revolution affected everything.
Registered Member #96
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 05:37PM
Location: CI, Earth
Posts: 4062
Hmm. Has it occurred to the Dyson sphere folks that even a high radiation star might still be useable IF all that energy is harvested and used for shielding the central equatorial regions?
Registered Member #30
Joined: Fri Feb 03 2006, 10:52AM
Location: Glasgow, Scotland
Posts: 6706
I'd like to think that as a civilization gets more advanced, the energy utilisation will plateau and then maybe even go down as they realise the environmental implications of it. There are more kinds of "advancement" than just hard science fiction.
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Growth Model Based on the Kardashev Scale
