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Registered Member #96
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 05:37PM
Location: CI, Earth
Posts: 4059
Hi all.
It seems that someone has asked a relevant question about the earlier report(s) of metallic hydrogen. If the original sample no longer exists so therefore no further measurements can be done but it was stable for a month or more between those diamonds, is it still scientifically valid?
It is unfortunate that the act of measuring caused a failure, but as the original author said it just encourages other teams to replicate in order that the original data can be confirmed or refuted.
Can people add any other examples, a good discussion can therefore be had.
Registered Member #56
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 05:02AM
Location: Southern Califorina, USA
Posts: 2445
In the 'metalic hydrogen' case the fact that the sample was destroyed does not really affect the validity of the results, the concerns are more about the fact that their results are not really all that convincing (especially considering that they are quick to point out that there have been many claims in the past of MH detection, but that they were all wrong and this result is 'the first sample of MH on earth').
Their results would be much more convincing if they compared their measurements to an empty (or filled with another non-hydrogen material) DAC, or at least showed their measured spectra at the intermediate pressures so that one could at least refute their claims by finding an alternative theory (as was done for the previous refuted claims) which better matches the measurements.
Being able to reproduce their measurements would also of course be nice, and add a lot more weight to them. The good news is that their experimental setup is trivial as far as physics experiments go--they have processed the diamonds using specialized techniques, but did so using tools which should be readily available to other universities. The rest of experimental setup appears to be mostly off-the-shelf components which could be reproduced for under a hundred thousand dollars.
That said, their experiments will almost certainly be revisited in the next year or so by other groups, and the real science can start. In my opinion this is a relatively clean cut case, where they at least present some conclusive measurements (measured optical reflection of the sample consistent with a metallic transition), whereas there have been plenty of other results (like the EM drive) which base their claims off measurements that are barely more than noise and without any solid theoretical backing. Plus plenty of high-profile papers in other fields *cough*biology*cough* which are based on questionable statistics where no efforts were made to reproduce the results, or attempts to reproduce them were inconsistent with the original results.
Registered Member #96
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 05:37PM
Location: CI, Earth
Posts: 4059
And psychology. If there is anything to be learned from this experience it is that being first at any cost is not always wise. I read somewhere that between 50 and 90% of papers have suspect data, in many cases folks publish first but later find that their data was flawed. Do they admit it, ever? Nope!!!!
Registered Member #65
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 06:43AM
Location:
Posts: 1155
Conundrum wrote ...
I read somewhere that between 50 and 90% of papers have suspect data, in many cases folks publish first but later find that their data was flawed. Do they admit it, ever? Nope!!!!
Your influence-rating/budget as an academic is weighted by the number of published citations of your papers. No one who designs air-planes cites the story of Icarus. Thus, I would suggest that 50% number is optimistically low even if you exclude those that exploit a Simpson's paradox for fake medical advice, or shilling circles to sound relevant. While it is not really a lie to intentionally feign ignorance for attention, it certainly is unethical to reallocate budgets from real scientific work.
Also, there are around 174 fake journals designed to make silly people sound credible for political reasons. As people rarely question premium grade rhetoric, the political influence is surprisingly effective on the general public when cited by the gullible.
Some warning language from real papers for those who forget their statistics: “a considerable trend toward significance†listing ( )
A warning about propaganda: it is usually a mix of truth and untruths to re-define a narrative, and thus debunking specific assertions with facts has proven ineffective. Thus, loud charismatic socio-paths will likely inherit the earth... have you not seen the prophetic works of “Idiocracy†(2006).
Registered Member #11591
Joined: Wed Mar 20 2013, 08:20PM
Location: UK
Posts: 556
Carbon_Rod wrote ...
...
...
A warning about propaganda: it is usually a mix of truth and untruths to re-define a narrative, and thus debunking specific assertions with facts has proven ineffective. Thus, loud charismatic socio-paths will likely inherit the earth... have you not seen the prophetic works of “Idiocracy†(2006).
Registered Member #2906
Joined: Sun Jun 06 2010, 02:20AM
Location: Dresden, Germany
Posts: 727
I work at my university and in my buro we are proud of the fact that despite working well over 1.5years there we have not published a stupid paper at all ^_^ We are fully aware that the stupid system is extremely broken. Being ee-ing we use mainly ieeexplore as source for "information" but the bulk of shitty papers copies of copies and irrelevant information when doing keyword search is pathetic because people put keywords in their papers just to get higher rankings. The most amusing part is how the professor pushes us all to finally get something out. We always try to point out that we do nothing worth publishing because there is a difference between normal engineering work and actual scientific progress which is extremely hard to achieve in circuit design. Most sources of improvement are switching to a more suitable technology. So someone using a 90nm process makes better analog circuits that i ever can achieve in 28nm / 45nm. Even if we would develop the same topology. Yet all improvements are aknowledged to the engineer - not to the fab. Crazy. The level of paper-pollution is ever increasing leading to ever harder information retrieval leading to worse "science" by the minute.
Worse yet than Simpson's paradox is inferring causation from correlation.
A warning about propaganda: it is usually a mix of truth and untruths to re-define a narrative, and thus debunking specific assertions with facts has proven ineffective.
I think, you are a bit pessimistic. While it takes a solid math background to understand the pitfalls of statistics, a political discussion can often be safely dumped into the garbage bin if it is about who said something instead of what was said. Arguing to the point may cause headaches, though, and who wants that?
Registered Member #65
Joined: Thu Feb 09 2006, 06:43AM
Location:
Posts: 1155
Uspring wrote ...
I think, you are a bit pessimistic. While it takes a solid math background to understand the pitfalls of statistics, a political discussion can often be safely dumped into the garbage bin if it is about who said something instead of what was said. Arguing to the point may cause headaches, though, and who wants that?
The point was, there are well established and privately funded political contractors that generate entire fake journals to justify complete nonsense, and gullible academics submit their own work (that may/may-not be valid publications deemed low-relevance by credible journals). While the public is so overwhelmed with unsubstantiated claims that real critics also seem to spout complete nonsense.
I guess pessimism is a product of blind optimism, logic, and years of observational data.
Physikfan wrote ...
Is a list of these 174 fake journals available?
Note, this list refers to a proven failure to enforce peer-review submission standards, but not every author/paper in a specific journal is necessarily dubious. The number has grown substantially higher over the years, constantly evolves the titles (usually after some bad press), and doesn't imply mainstream publications avoid the same problems.
A M Publishers Abhinav Academe Research Journals Academia Publishing Academia Research Academia Scholarly Journals (ASJ) Academic and Business Research Institute Academic and Scientific Publishing Academic Journals Academic Journals and Research ACJAR Academic Journals Online (AJO) Academic Journals, Inc. Academic Publications, Ltd. Academic Research Journals Academic Research Publishers (ARPUB) Academic Research Publishing Agency Academic Scholars Publishing House Academic Sciences Academic Star Publishing Company Academic World Education & Research Center AcademicDirect Academicians' Research Center (ARC) Academy Journals Academy of IRMBR International Research in Management and Business Realities Academy of Knowledge Process Academy of Science and Engineering (ASE) Academy of Science and Social Science (ASSS) Academy of Scientific and Applied Research (ASAAR) Academy Publish Access International Journals ACT Publishing Ada Lovelace Publications Advance Educational Institute & Research Centre (AEIRC) Advance Research Publications Advanced Research Journals Advanced Scholars Journals Advanced Science and Engineering Technology Institute (ASET) Advanced Science Research Journals Advancement and Development in Technology International (Aditi) AENSI (American-Eurasian Network for Scientific Information) African Research Review (AFRREV) AgiAl Publishing House AIRCC Publishing Corporation Aizeon Publishers Akademik Plus Publication American Academic & Scholarly Research Center (AASRC) American Association for Science and Technology (AASCIT) American Research Institute for Policy Development American Research Publications American Scientific Research Journals American Society for Science and Engineering American Society of Registered Nurses American V-King Scientific Publishing Annex Publishers ANSINetwork Antarctic Journals Aperito Publications Apex Journal Apex Journals - Apex Journal Applied Science Innovations Archers & Elevators Publishing House ARPN Journals ASD Publisher ASDF Journals Ashdin Publishing Asian Academic Research Associates Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS) Asian Online Journal Publishing Group Asian Online Journals Asian Research Consortium Associated Asia Research Foundation (AARF) Association of Computer Electronics and Electrical Engineers (ACEEE) AstonJournals Athal Press & Media Atharva Scientific Publications Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER) Atlas Publishing, LP Austin Publishing Group Australian Academy of Business and Social Sciences Australian International Academic Centre Pty. Ltd. Australian International Research Consortium (Australian International Journals Avens Publishing Group Avestia Publishing Avicena Publisher Basic Research Journals Bell Press Bentham Open Best Journals Better Advances Press Bio Accent (Bioaccent) Biohelikon BioInfo Publications BioIT international Journals Biological and Chemical Publishing BioMed Research BioMedSciDirect Publications Bioscience Research & Educational Institute Blaze Journals Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering & Sciences Publication Blue Ocean Research Journals BluePen Journals Bonfring Bowen Publishing Bret Research Journals British Association of Academic Research (BAAR) British Journal Business Journalz (BJ) Business Perspectives Canadian Center of Science and Education Canadian Research & Development Center of Sciences and Cultures see CSCanada Canadian Science and Technology Press Inc. 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Registered Member #11591
Joined: Wed Mar 20 2013, 08:20PM
Location: UK
Posts: 556
Uspring wrote ...
Worse yet than Simpson's paradox is inferring causation from correlation. ...
Every A-Level biologist's mantra "There is correlation but not necessarily causation..." I think seeing a correlation and incorrectly assuming a causation is the number one problem in statistical science. One solution is to ban statistics but that may be too radical :) Take the infamous Autism / MMR cock up. Many conspiracy theorists slash Daily Mail readers still refuse to vaccinate their children...
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On the reproducibility of scientific results
